The USA can do what it wants, of course. But it's odd that the USA is aligning with Russia+China when it professes to be "concentrating on China". China is carefully watching how the collective "West" fragments over Ukraine because this wiil be an important point in their decision on whether and when to attack Taiwan. The current USA administration may no longer care about Taiwan. We just have to wait until their attention meanders that way to get a reasoned, cogent statement from them. /s
But China also watches Ukraine and knows there is no 3 day success story here. It will grind. There will be a contested beach landing, there will be fleet losses, there will be significant manpower losses and there will be immediate trade economic losses. An immediate embargo on steel, coal and oil in, massive downturn to trade. Mind you the $780b+ of US debt will come in handy as a lever
There has been no significant loss of life in the PLA since Korea, noting perhaps minor spats with Vietnam or India. Tens of thousands died in 1979, similar numbers now in current times will be a hard swallow. And I would predict higher losses. When you have twenty aircraft carriers losing one or two is sad but wearable. China has three. If they conduct àir assault from the mainland they're incurring burdens there too. Static defences will be overwhelmed both sides. So.. some amount of airfield and strategic oil supply hits.. where do you go next?
Xi Jinpeng has to speak belligerently but the party secretly hopes Taiwan will blink first because actually incurring a tide of blood stains his legacy. If Xi dies soon, yes. Somebody might risk this as a signature move.
Taiwan is tiny, but pretending a 3 day war and done can happen after Ukraine is insanity.
Taiwan is not Ukraine. The PRC is comparatively far larger and better equipped. A coordinated airborne assault would likely be successful negating the need for a contested beach landing.
Taiwan needs to embrace a more total defense strategy with stabilized MG turrets on most building roofs.
There hasn't been a successful air assault at scale for some time. After Crete Nazi Germany never tried again. WW2 lessons abound for the limited value of deep penetration by air to supply ground troops. Helicopters are vulnerable to manpads in landing. You think nobody is going to notice the landing craft, Helicopter ships or the mass fleet air arm? Or the 3 day pounding to take out radar?
Insertion of targeted special forces? Sure.
Taiwan needs a more integrated defence strategy for sure but can we not pretend this is one and done seize control? You think the Taiwanese defence forces have failed to war game the scenarios?
Without wishing to give in to ad hom what's your goal here? Pessimism to defeatism? Some kind of nihilist decision not to contest?
Obviously for enough blood in the streets China will win.
No successful air assault? How about Panama or Grenada? Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses.
To be sufficiently vulnerable to MANPADs you need enough of them in enough trained hands. If there is the element of surprise this does not happen. I envision a surprise air assault they flies below radar and establishes the coup before the army can get out of their barracks. The Taiwanese are not the 'rifle behind every blade of grass' type of people who have embraced total defense.
> Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses.
The first air assault failed outright. The second was a not quite success that held on for two weeks and was a definitive failure to meet objectives after a month.
If you define "success" as they had a fortnight they held out for prior to being killed or forced to withdraw then yes, that was a success . . .
Big picture wise .. not the game planned by Russia that was intended to seize and hold control of the airport while taking the capital.
If russia had planned an invasion and brought more weapons instead of dress uniforms and riot shields they may well have been successful.
The initial air assault did meet its objectives regardless of failures later and elsewhere. This success is likely instructive for a potential Taiwan invasion. They need to take it more seriously and build a network of remote control turrets.
You cannot seriously compare the Taiwanese defence forces to Grenada or Panama.
But I agree surprise could get them a lot. A long way. Assuming there is no edge defence radar doing over the horizon, nor satellite Intel, nor RF chatter, no other signs.
Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines Singapore are mentally invested in the issue around the China Sea and the spratleys. Their defence forces are going to help, and Australia and New Zealand.
I don't like talking up a defensive war, but I also don't like defeatist thinking. I prefer we confront than give in, and I am confident there is a regional understanding in. ASEAN to mount a defence. And China knows it.
Sounds very similar to how the Ukraine “special military operation” was intended and you see the result. Its also probably a scenario Taiwan’s defense is preparing for.
If a successful tolerably bloodless coup happens, I agree ASEAN will temporise and fall back on the painful economic warfare. I think this is the least likely assault and has many risk points in execution. No doubt Carter thought his airborne insertion into Iran was going to work.
Painful for who? They all outsourced their factories to China. Military power is an extension of industrial power. In the cold war the US had a better military because it could leverage the consumer technology industry. Now that's all moved to China.
Seems to me the US has been trying to make Taiwan redundant for years, that, along with the most recent events, makes the writing on the wall clear. I think Taiwan will blink first. To me, the hate that China gets from the US elite is just because China is a success story, which puts American hegemony in doubt.
Its sad to see a nation like the USA make such a mess of diplomacy.
Discussion (126 points, 5 hours ago, 78 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43248919
Related: Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting (2895 points, 3 days ago, 5296 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43208973
The USA can do what it wants, of course. But it's odd that the USA is aligning with Russia+China when it professes to be "concentrating on China". China is carefully watching how the collective "West" fragments over Ukraine because this wiil be an important point in their decision on whether and when to attack Taiwan. The current USA administration may no longer care about Taiwan. We just have to wait until their attention meanders that way to get a reasoned, cogent statement from them. /s
But China also watches Ukraine and knows there is no 3 day success story here. It will grind. There will be a contested beach landing, there will be fleet losses, there will be significant manpower losses and there will be immediate trade economic losses. An immediate embargo on steel, coal and oil in, massive downturn to trade. Mind you the $780b+ of US debt will come in handy as a lever
There has been no significant loss of life in the PLA since Korea, noting perhaps minor spats with Vietnam or India. Tens of thousands died in 1979, similar numbers now in current times will be a hard swallow. And I would predict higher losses. When you have twenty aircraft carriers losing one or two is sad but wearable. China has three. If they conduct àir assault from the mainland they're incurring burdens there too. Static defences will be overwhelmed both sides. So.. some amount of airfield and strategic oil supply hits.. where do you go next?
Xi Jinpeng has to speak belligerently but the party secretly hopes Taiwan will blink first because actually incurring a tide of blood stains his legacy. If Xi dies soon, yes. Somebody might risk this as a signature move.
Taiwan is tiny, but pretending a 3 day war and done can happen after Ukraine is insanity.
Taiwan is not Ukraine. The PRC is comparatively far larger and better equipped. A coordinated airborne assault would likely be successful negating the need for a contested beach landing.
Taiwan needs to embrace a more total defense strategy with stabilized MG turrets on most building roofs.
There hasn't been a successful air assault at scale for some time. After Crete Nazi Germany never tried again. WW2 lessons abound for the limited value of deep penetration by air to supply ground troops. Helicopters are vulnerable to manpads in landing. You think nobody is going to notice the landing craft, Helicopter ships or the mass fleet air arm? Or the 3 day pounding to take out radar?
Insertion of targeted special forces? Sure.
Taiwan needs a more integrated defence strategy for sure but can we not pretend this is one and done seize control? You think the Taiwanese defence forces have failed to war game the scenarios?
Without wishing to give in to ad hom what's your goal here? Pessimism to defeatism? Some kind of nihilist decision not to contest?
Obviously for enough blood in the streets China will win.
No successful air assault? How about Panama or Grenada? Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses.
To be sufficiently vulnerable to MANPADs you need enough of them in enough trained hands. If there is the element of surprise this does not happen. I envision a surprise air assault they flies below radar and establishes the coup before the army can get out of their barracks. The Taiwanese are not the 'rifle behind every blade of grass' type of people who have embraced total defense.
> Even russia was able to secure hostomel despite losses.
The first air assault failed outright. The second was a not quite success that held on for two weeks and was a definitive failure to meet objectives after a month.
If you define "success" as they had a fortnight they held out for prior to being killed or forced to withdraw then yes, that was a success . . .
Big picture wise .. not the game planned by Russia that was intended to seize and hold control of the airport while taking the capital.
That was a definite face plant.
If russia had planned an invasion and brought more weapons instead of dress uniforms and riot shields they may well have been successful.
The initial air assault did meet its objectives regardless of failures later and elsewhere. This success is likely instructive for a potential Taiwan invasion. They need to take it more seriously and build a network of remote control turrets.
You cannot seriously compare the Taiwanese defence forces to Grenada or Panama.
But I agree surprise could get them a lot. A long way. Assuming there is no edge defence radar doing over the horizon, nor satellite Intel, nor RF chatter, no other signs.
You seclude the troops and do it at night under clouds with EMCON. All of these challenges are overcomeable.
Europe can't help Taiwan. The US won't.
Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines Singapore are mentally invested in the issue around the China Sea and the spratleys. Their defence forces are going to help, and Australia and New Zealand.
I don't like talking up a defensive war, but I also don't like defeatist thinking. I prefer we confront than give in, and I am confident there is a regional understanding in. ASEAN to mount a defence. And China knows it.
They are all too far and too slow to respond to what could only be a lighting campaign.
How you think China can marshall an invasion force without it being seen, and mount a lightning campaign escapes me.
It would be entirely airborne and if the coup is established before anyone in the pacific can act they likely won't respond militarily.
Sounds very similar to how the Ukraine “special military operation” was intended and you see the result. Its also probably a scenario Taiwan’s defense is preparing for.
If a successful tolerably bloodless coup happens, I agree ASEAN will temporise and fall back on the painful economic warfare. I think this is the least likely assault and has many risk points in execution. No doubt Carter thought his airborne insertion into Iran was going to work.
Painful for who? They all outsourced their factories to China. Military power is an extension of industrial power. In the cold war the US had a better military because it could leverage the consumer technology industry. Now that's all moved to China.
Seems to me the US has been trying to make Taiwan redundant for years, that, along with the most recent events, makes the writing on the wall clear. I think Taiwan will blink first. To me, the hate that China gets from the US elite is just because China is a success story, which puts American hegemony in doubt.
The prospect of Chinese hegemony is even scarier.
Having a success story outside of the US doesn't mean Chinese hegemony.
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